I don't have the time at the moment to go back through prior posts and links to gather the data, but I think there's a pretty strong foundation for the assertions. In those countries with big surges in membership at the national level of which I'm aware, those that attended (as in Sweden) were documented as being Microsoft partners, and voted overwhelmingly in such a way as to confirm that conclusion. Moreover, pro-ODF companies that were newly arrived tended to be from companies with genuine skin in the game, such as Google, rather than random ISVs, with little discernible reason to be there, as in the case of those that voted in favor of OOXML.
The same thing happened at the SC 34 level, where the great majority of the new members and upgrades voted for adoption, almost all without comments.
So while there certainly have been examples of "whispering," this doesn't seem to be one of them. I think that the assumptions here are well substantiated by facts that strongly support them.